DIEGO ARRIA
Strengths: Arria has enjoyed a long and distinguished career in public service, and few doubt his general competence. He his put forth the most interesting and in some ways radical proposal – he promises to serve for three years only (out of a six-year term) and call for a constitutional convention, arguing that Chávez has so destroyed the Venezuelan state that it requires a complete rebirth.
Weaknesses: His age (74) has left him out of touch with many of the younger voters. He has not compromised his positions at all in an effort to gain votes. He simply has not gained any traction outside of his hardcore supporters.
Prediction: Arria will finish with 3% or so of the vote.
MARÍA CORINA MACHADO
Strengths: Machado has come from the back of the pack to become the most dynamic candidate in the race. Her exchange with Chávez during his State of the Union Address on January 13 catapulted her into the spotlight when she accused the President that ¨to expropriate is to rob.¨ That became her unofficial slogan and is chanted at all of her rallies. Chávez´s retort that ¨eagles don´t hunt flies¨ led her to adopt the nickname of ¨la mosca¨ to great effect. She has also taken on President Chávez in a more forceful and effective way than any other candidate. Machado offers more creative and extreme proposals for reform than anyone else. She strongly defends capitalism and the free market when nobody else does, becoming the strongest conservative voice in the race. Machado comes across as the most intelligent of the candidates and consistently fared well in debates and other public appearances. In short, she has run the most compelling campaign of anyone.
Weaknesses: Machado is consistently criticized for being ¨sifrina¨ (posh) and snobbish, and she does not suffer fools lightly. She does not connect well with ordinary voters, seeming to direct most of her speeches at the highly educated. She also does not have the backing of any political parties, meaning that her organizational structure is not nearly as strong as her main rivals. Her proposals are simply too radical and too conservative for many Venezuelans.
Prediction: She may well be the toughest candidate to predict, especially for me, because she continues to gain last minute support from undecided voters drawn to her dynamic campaign. At the same time she will draw most of her support from Caracas and its outskirts, which of course dominates media coverage and my perspective. Most polls have her at or below 10% but I think she could surprise and end up with around 15%.
PABLO PÉREZ
Strengths: As the governor of Zulia state, Pérez has the backing of the second largest metropolitan area and its surroundings in the country. He is also in charge of the heart of the Venezuelan oil industry, which is by far the most important part of the economy, preparing him well for the challenges of national office. Pérez forcefully supports the decentralization of power which has been accumulated in Caracas over the past half century, drawing widespread support throughout the ¨provincial¨ areas of the country. He comes from a more humble background than any of the other candidates, which in theory anyway should help him win the support of working class voters. He enjoys the backing of the most political parties, including the two biggest traditionally, COPEI and Acción Democrática. Finally, Pérez comes across as a strong persona able to challenge a figure such as Chávez. Indeed he resembles the President in many ways in terms of his speech and mannerisms. Though I believe that he looks and sounds like a Venezuelan Steve Lavin. For people who think the opposition needs a tough figure capable of withstanding the inevitable attacks that will come between now and October, he looks the part.
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| Pablo Pérez |
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| Steve Lavin |
Weaknesses: Pérez has run a surprisingly lackluster campaign. He should have been able to emerge as the only viable alternative to Capriles Radonski and win widespread appeal everywhere besides Caracas, but never really managed to do so. While the support of the traditional parties provides him a boon in terms of improving his organizational capacity, it leaves him open to criticism of representing a return to the past, which nobody wants. While Pérez´s personality appears strong to some, to others he comes across as aggressive and a little bit scary.
Prediction: Polls have Pérez with anywhere from 23% to 42% of the vote. I think the middle of that range seems a good bet, and he should win about a third of the total.
HENRIQUE CAPRILES RADONSKI
Strengths: Capriles speaks the language of the people, appealing to rich and poor alike. He attempts to build bridges to all, including chavistas, and seems to offend nobody. He has run an incredibly disciplined campaign that has never jeopardized the lead he built in the race from day one. Capriles has a strong track record as governor of Miranda state that he repeatedly holds up as an example of how he would govern as president. The endorsement he received from Leopoldo López when López dropped out of the race has proven to be a huge help. Capriles had been stuck at around 35% in the polls before then but now most have him at or above 50%, reaching as high as 61%. He benefits from being seen as the inevitable candidate. He has the best campaign song by far (Really, you should listen). Though Pablo Pérez´s is not bad.
Weaknesses: Capriles has made such an effort to be the conciliatory candidate that he risks not offering a strong enough alternative to chavismo. Hardcore opposition members fear that a Capriles administration would in the end institutionalize many of the mistakes that Chávez has made. Much of his support is based in the central, Caracas-dominated regions of Miranda, Aragua, and the Federal District.
Prediction: Adding up the numbers of the other candidates, that leaves Capriles with 49% of the vote, which although is lower than he gets in most of the polls seems about right.
Wrapping up, anything other than a Capriles victory would come as a great surprise. So long as his winning total is not controversially low, the most interesting and important result of the primary will not be the proportion of the vote that he wins, but the total voter turnout. There are approximately 17.9 million registered voters in Venezuela. To win the general election in October a candidate will need to receive at least 5.5 million votes, given that turnout should be above 50%. Chavistas will do everything they can short of violence to reduce turnout on Sunday. Public workers will receive emails reminding them of the inconvenience of waiting in line all day and everyone gets hints that their votes may not be entirely confidential, although by law they are guaranteed to be so. Turnout on Sunday will probably be just over 2 million, a truly impressive figure given the conditions here and Venezuela´s lack of experience with the primary process (there was none during the last presidential election, chavistas never have one, and only sporadically did the political parties run them in the past). If, however, it drops below 2 million that would be a very bad sign for the opposition. If it somehow reaches close to 3 million that would be a huge victory for the Unidad. No matter what, chavistas will belittle the results, arguing that only 10-15% (or whatever the outcome may be) of the electorate voted and therefore means nothing. However, the truth is that just about everyone who votes on Sunday will vote for whoever wins the primary in the general election. Plus there will be many more who do not vote on Sunday out of fear or inconvenience who will in October (Chávez can´t tell people not to vote when he is on the ballot) and even some chavistas who may be persuaded to switch their allegiances.
In any case, Sunday promises to be an exciting day. I will try and visit as many voting stations as I can and give as complete a report as possible.
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