Chávez´s Health

I´ve received a couple of emails asking about President Chávez´s health in the wake of his announcement on Tuesday that a lesion of approximately two centimeters has reappeared in the same area where a tumor was removed in June. Since that has dominated headlines here ever since I thought I would try to explain the impact it has had and will have moving forward as the presidential campaign season gets ready to kick into high gear.

The most important thing to note is that nobody has any idea about the true state of the President´s health, and anyone who says otherwise is bluffing (including the Brazilian doctors who continue to make statements to the press). In general in the foreign press the more anti-Chávez the source (link in Spanish), the more dire the prognosis of his health. In Venezuela that is not necessarily the case, which I will explain below. About a month ago a series of articles appeared around the globe claiming that Chávez would die before the election on October 7. Now many seem to be saying that he has less than a year to live, but that he will make it until October. The fact is, Chávez goes to Cuba for medical treatment, and nobody outside of him, his doctors there, and possibly the Castro brothers probably know the truth.


In Venezuela rumors and theories have abounded since he announced he had cancer last year. Some people take his scarce updates at face value. Others think that his illness is indeed terminal, or that he had cancer but had beaten it (at least until this week). All he has revealed is that he had a tumor removed from his pelvic area last year, leading some to speculate that he had an advanced stage of colon or prostate cancer. Until last week he claimed that he had beaten the disease. Many people have thought all along that the whole thing was nothing but a ploy to allow him to miraculously recover this summer, making him appear even stronger ahead of the elections. They think he has made the whole thing up. The opposition repeatedly calls on him to disclose his medical records, as it is a matter of public interest.

In the wake of Tuesday´s announcement, I have a new favorite theory, which I have heard from a couple of people. This theory holds that Chávez does have some form of cancer. If you look at pictures of him from last year after he underwent chemo, he does look gaunt and ill. But according to the theory, it was not a particularly serious or malignant form, it was treated properly, and his announcement this week is nothing but a scam.

Right now the opposition has all the momentum in Venezuela. Their primary surpassed all expectations, uniting its supporters as never before and giving them an exceedingly capable presidential candidate. The chavistas have already started to mount their attacks against Capriles, but they look a little desperate in doing so. Instead of criticizing his record in office, they have accused him of electoral fraud, of being gay (he is not married), and of benefiting from a Zionist conspiracy in his favor (his maternal grandmother was a Polish concentration camp survivor, and he credits her influence often in speeches). But Capriles has handled the attacks well and if anything his popularity has surged since his primary victory. Chávez himself has resorted to name calling, claiming that Capriles has a tail like a pig, ears like a pig, etc., and that makes him a pig. He has also used the old line that he is nothing but a candidate of the bourgeoisie and that he led an attack on the Cuban Embassy during the 2002 coup against Chávez, for which Capriles has already served time in jail despite his denials.

In addition, the oil spill in Monagas state has exposed some of the ineptitude of the Chávez administration. The spill released anywhere from 60,000 to 120,000 barrels of oil into the Guarapiche River, contaminating not only the river but also the water supply for the city of Maturín. The government has done essentially nothing to address the problem. It scarcely appears in the chavista press and President Chávez has neither visited the region (which voted for him more strongly than any other state in 2006) nor mentioned it in his public addresses since. PDVSA, the state oil company, has also tried to hush up the affair, which reveals its declining capabilities since Chávez fired 18,000 employees and replaced them with his own political supporters after the coup. Despite the lack of official coverage, many citizens are irate with the government for allowing the spill to happen and its woeful response. So all in all it´s a bad time for chavismo, despite the rapidly increasing public spending in advance of the elections in October (public spending in January was 80% higher than last year, more than 40% higher in real terms).

Back to Chávez´s health. Since the news has been so bad for him lately, the theory suggests that he has reintroduced the issue of his cancer for two reasons. One, it gets him back into the news, and in a sympathetic manner. For that, mission accomplished. Immediately people are talking about him and not the opposition or the oil spill. And second, it allows him to go underground for a couple of months, ¨recuperating¨ from the second surgery he will have. While he lays low, the opposition might stumble and not know how to react. Will they continue to harshly criticize a president with cancer? Will they hold off on attacks while he is gone? Will the move awaken new power struggles within the movement? At the least it should slow the momentum they currently have. Then Chávez can return again in June or so and create a fresh narrative for the campaign. It will be like starting from scratch, with the added benefit that he can demonstrate another remarkable victory over adversity. The success of the primary will be forgotten, there will be more public largesse to placate the general population, and Chávez will be in better shape than ever to win re-election.

Like I said, nobody knows for sure what is going on, and this is just one theory among many. But I have not been able to detect any signs of ill health in the President since I have been here (not that their absence is evidence of a clean bill of health), and this explanation seems exactly the kind of move that Chávez would make. At the least it makes for a fun counter-point when the subject inevitably arises in conversation.

In terms of the election itself, it is hard to predict the effects of the cancer. Unless Chávez is clearly terminally ill, I do not think that his support will be greatly affected. If his status continues to remain in question, it might prompt some undecided voters to back the opposition, but probably not too many. If he does make a full recovery then it might prompt the same group to vote for him. But mostly I think the biggest impact will simply be how much coverage his health warrants - the more people talk about him the less they talk about Capriles, and that only helps the President.