In contrast to elections past during Chávez's time in office, the opposition has promised to rally behind whoever wins the primary. Although candidates represent different political parties, they have united under the umbrella of the Unidad Democrática y de la Alternativa Democrática, referred to as Unidad (Unity). While the possibility exists that one of the losing candidates could pull a Ralph Nader and run as a third candidate in October, there are no signs yet that this will happen. In later posts I will attempt to present more comprehensive views of the biggest issues in the campaign, of the likelihood that Chávez could lose the October election (slim to none barring a catastrophic turn for the worse of his health), and a recap of what politics in Venezuela have been like in recent years. For now I thought it would be fun simply to give a thumbnail sketch of each opposition candidate as well as some idea of their chances of winning the primary. Without further ado, here they are, in alphabetical order:
Diego Arria is a longshot in the primary primarily because he represents an older generation (he is 73) in an election that seems to belong to a younger voice. Arria has had a long and distinguished career in government (under previous presidents) including stints as Governor of the Federal District of Caracas, Information and Tourism Minister, and Permanent Representative to the United Nations, during the course of which he served for a time as President of the Security Council. He also ran for president in 1978 and finished fourth. Recently he has suffered in a manner that strangely seems to afflict so many Chávez opponents when his farm was expropriated by the Venezuelan government. Arria has acquitted himself decently during his campaign, but has gained little traction in the polls. Let's give him odds of 40:1 for winning the primary.
Henrique Capriles Radonski is the current Governor of Miranda state, which contains most of the city of Caracas and is therefore the most populous of Venezuela's 23. Previously he served as Mayor of the Baruta municipality of Caracas, which is divided into five districts in a manner akin to New York City's burroughs, in order to make it more manageable. In 1998 he was elected to the National Assembly, becoming the youngest ever to do so. Surprisingly, Capriles has endured charges that he encouraged violence against the Cuban embassy during the 2002 coup attempt against Chávez.
Capriles seems to be the favorite to win the primary, albeit not a strong one. He was the first to officially enter the race and enjoyed the boost in publicity and awareness that it brought. He has been a successful governor of an important state at the ripe old age of 39, and his politics are relatively centrist. Capriles projects an image of moderation and calm and takes care not to attack President Chávez needlessly. He also benefits from the recent craze in South America of having candidates with Eastern European names run for president - Kuczynski in Peru, Mockus in Colombia, and Rousseff in Brazil being the best examples I can name. He may suffer, however, from the Romney affliction of having the remaining opposition candidates run their campaigns against him, and at some point he may be forced to go on the attack a bit more himself. Still, make him the bookies' favorite at 6:5.
Leopoldo López served as the Mayor of the Chacao municipality of Caracas, the most prosperous of the five districts. He faces the most serious obstacle of any of the candidates since he has been ruled by the Venezuelan courts that he is ineligible to run for public office due to outstanding corruption charges against him. However in September the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR), whose decisions Venezuela is bound by law to respect, unanimously ruled that he should be allowed to run. The Venezuelan Supreme Court has thus far rejected that ruling, and it is unclear what would happen if López were to win the presidency in October. Indeed a test of his campaign is to prove that the fact that he may not be allowed to serve as president should he win should not impede voters from placing him in that position.
López is young (40 years old) and telegenic, and he has performed well in the two debates that have been held for opposition candidates. The IACHR ruling provided a huge boost to his popularity. However he may have trouble escaping the stigma that his background is privileged and his executive branch experience comes from running one of the wealthiest areas in the country. His politics are also quite conservative by Venezuelan standards, and he recently returned from a trip to Colombia where he met with its former President Uribe, the embodiment of right wing politics in Latin America today. Mark him down at 3:1.
María Cochina Macahado is the co-founder and former President of Súmate (Join Up), a Venezuelan NGO and self-described vote monitoring group. Súmate led a petition drive in 2004 for a recall of President Chávez. Shockingly, a year later she was pressed with charges of conspiracy for receiving a grant from the National Endowment for Democracy. In 2010 Machado resigned from Súmate in order to run for the National Assembly, and promptly won the most votes of any candidate in the country.
Machado is 44 years old, has run a strong campaign, and has come across extremely well in debates and other public appearances. Her credibility as a longstanding opponent of Chávez is firmly established and her grasp of policy details is strong. However her name recognition is weak despite her electoral success two years ago given that she has never been a governor or spent much time in political office. She seems not to be mentioned in the same breath as the three most likely candidates although it is not due to any particular criticism. Still, don't give up on her. Odds of 8:1.
Pablo Medina is an old trade unionist and opposition candidate who failed to pay his registration fee and therefore has not been allowed to run in the Unidad primary. He nonetheless continues to run as an independent as the most leftist opposition candidate by far, à la Dennis Kucinich. I'll give him generous odds to win in October of 10,000:1.
Pablo Pérez is the current Governor of Zulia state, Venezuela's most populous, richest, and the site of its second biggest city, Maracaibo. Pérez is a former lawyer and ran a losing campaign to be mayor of Maracaibo in 2004. He is a protege of Manuel Rosales, who was his predecessor as Zulia's governor and the most prominent opponent of Chávez in the most recent presidential election of 2006. Rosales fled to Peru and claimed asylum there in 2009 after he was charged with corruption in a case that definitely had nothing to do with his presidential aspirations.
Pérez has positioned himself well in the campaign thus far and has probably emerged as Capriles' strongest rival. He talks tough in a way that most of the other candidates do not and makes a show of standing up to Chávez. Although he is not younger in age than some of the other candidates (he is 42), Pérez faces questions about his experience and preparedness for the highest office, perhaps because he was only elected as governor in 2008. In the interests of transparency I will confess that I feel that as though I have the most to learn about him while I am here in Venezuela. I'll set his odds at 5:2.
So there you have it. All in all most observers agree that this is a strong field of candidates, certainly stronger than those facing Chávez in the past as well as that distinguished group terrorizing Iowa right now. It will certainly be interesting to see how the final month before the primary goes, and if anybody reading this fancies their predictive prowess I would be more than happy to take bets at the odds listed above provided they are submitted in a timely fashion. Payment valid in cash or beverages.
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