Breaking News: Major Shakeup Within The Opposition

A huge decision was just announced moments ago at a joint press conference as opposition candidate Leopoldo López announced his withdrawal from the race for president and endorsed fellow opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski. This is the first major shakeup in the race since it began, and it has major ramifications on the upcoming opposition primary on February 12.
López explained that he was withdrawing because it was important to present as united a front as possible against Chávez, because he had succeeded in establishing his rights and his dignity in the face of legal actions brought against him, and because Capriles had proved himself to be the worthy candidate that Venezuela needs. No doubt that is all true. But at the same time there were probably at least two other major factors behind the decision. One, as I just mentioned, López faced a serious handicap when the Venezuelan courts banned his candidacy due to alleged corruption. Despite the fact that the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) declared the ban illegal, the Chávez-controlled judiciary here failed to recognize the decision. Though it is unlikely that Chávez or his supporters would have been able to challenge his victory were he to achieve it (at least any more than they might challenge any other opposition candidate), many voters undoubtedly thought that might be the case. Thus López was forced to address that concern time and again and explain that a vote for him was just as safe and effective as for anyone else.

Second, López appears to be considering his long-term political prospects as much as this campaign cycle. He is a young politician (40 years old) with a long career ahead of him. Forgetting his legal challenges, López seemed to be running a distant third in the race, which would be ok, but if he happened to fall further in the polls that could seriously dent his political reputation. María Corina Machado has seized some momentum in recent weeks and while she almost certainly cannot win the nomination she could finish ahead of López. By throwing his support behind Capriles, López achieves several important objectives. He avoids that risk of underperforming in the primary and immediately thrusts himself into pole position as the most likely vice presidential selection for Capriles. He also does a favor to the opposition movement in general, as long as the majority of its supporters see Capriles as an acceptable candidate. One of the problems facing Unidad is that with five candidates on the ballot on February 12, there existed the very real possibility that the winner would take less than 35% of the vote. That looks like a worryingly small mandate to take on President Chávez, even though undoubtedly the vast majority of primary voters would support any opposition candidate against Chávez. But the Chávez campaign could use a low share of the vote against the opposition winner in the run up to the general election. With López’s supporters in addition to his own, Capriles would appear to enjoy the backing of close to 50% of primary voters.

For Capriles this could not come at a better time. He has faced a dilemma somewhat similar to that which haunts Mitt Romney. He has long been seen as the front runner in the Unidad primary, but despite the “inevitability” tag attached to him he has not been able to improve his poll numbers and popularity, though he has not been caught by other candidates as has Romney at various times. Before February 12 I will give a more comprehensive take on each of the candidates, but for now it is important to note that one of Capriles’ biggest strengths is that he is seen as the most conciliatory of the opposition candidates. Indeed hard core opposition supporters complain that his policies are too similar to those of Chávez. So he suffers from that enthusiasm gap that seems to afflict the Romney campaign. He is also not as strong a “debater” (opposition debates here are not really debates but group interviews) or as passionate a speaker as some of the other candidates, relying instead on his strong record as mayor and governor and his personal reputation. With López’s endorsement he can now increase his appeal to more strident opponents of the regime and also benefit from having a charismatic and effective advocate at his side.

In any case, if López’s supporters do heed his call to support Capriles then attention could quickly shift from primary prognosticating to evaluating Capriles’ chances against Chávez. Opposition candidates have been reluctant to criticize each other because they want to present a united front against Chávez and not provide his campaign with any fodder, but it will be interesting to see if any of the other candidates now choose to attack Capriles as a last resort. Regardless, with less than three weeks to go until the primary there should still be enough time for more twists and turns to come.