Diplomatic Games and Intrigue

A couple of diplomatic incidents involving Venezuela seem to have made the news in the U.S. lately, so for that reason I am not going to comment on them in much detail. My own opinion is that they both involve much more smoke than fire. On Monday President Chávez officially welcomed Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Miraflores (the Venezuelan White House). Both leaders had some good lines to share. Chávez spoke first and announced, "We are certainly going to work hard for bombs, for missiles, to keep fighting a war. Our war is against misery and poverty." Ahmadinejad then stepped it up a notch and declared, "Our weapon is logic, is culture and human values, our weapon is love," as John Lennon smiled down from heaven. 


Although some Americans expressed grave concern about the growing Venezuelan-Iranian alliance, in reality the partnership is mostly grandstanding by a couple of world leaders who truthfully do not have too many friends to choose from. Iran has invested in some cement factories and other industries here, but in reality the country does not have much money to spread around as the effects of tightening sanctions take hold. Pessimists worry about Venezuela becoming a base for Hezbollah, but that seems extremely unlikely to me. 

Venezuela for its part offers mostly a hug and a shoulder to cry on for a lonely friend. Indeed this seems to be the primary goal of Ahmadinejad's entire trip, which also includes stops at 80% of the hemisphere's Axis of Mischief. Next on the Iranian president's itinerary were Nicaragua, then Cuba, followed by Ecuador, with only poor Bolivia left out.

Truthfully it became hard for me to take the proceedings at the presidential palace seriously. On Sunday while watching the glorious return, after a seven month absence due to the host's health issues, of the television show "Aló Presidente," I noticed that currently Hugo Chávez bears an uncanny resemblance to Curly from the Three Stooges. See for yourself.

from http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120110/ahmadinejad-a-hugo-chavez-nuestra-arma-es-el-amor

from http://moviebuzzers.com/2011/03/26/sasso-curly-stooges/500full-curly-howard/

Once that observation has been made the Comandante loses a certain amount of luster. As an aside, "Aló Presidente" is an incredible show. Chávez, acting as if he were the host of "The Tonight Show," talks about whatever he wants for as long as he wants. This week that meant six hours. Highlights while I tuned in included him tossing out questions to members of his Cabinet, who sat in the equivalent of the studio audience. An example of a typical exchange:

Chávez: "Elena, what was the budget for the Education Ministry last year?"
Education Minister: "Um, three billion."
Chávez: "And what was it when you got there?"
Education Minister: "Maybe 800,000."
Chávez: "Haha. You see? That's what the Bolivarian Revolution can do for you. That's great, just great. Now, Ricardo..."

That segment was followed by a musical performance by a local band, during which Chávez walked over and took a washboard from the man playing it. He then proceeded to play it himself for the remainder of the song, which lasted a solid ten minutes. Let's just say the President does not shy away from the camera. Later, in an impromptu segment (pretty sure they all are), he mused about the possibility of withdrawing Venezuela from the World Banks' International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) to thwart Exxon's continuing attempts to earn compensation for its assets that were nationalized in 2007. But it seems to me as though he continually throws out ideas as they occur to him and then decides later which ones are worth pursuing. All in all the show was entertaining and appalling in equal measure. It would definitely benefit from an Ed McMahon-style sidekick (maybe the Vice President?). And it did make me wish that U.S. presidents were allowed to take themselves a little less seriously every now and again.

Anyway, the other diplomatic incident undoubtedly had more than a little to do with the Ahmadinejad visit. On Friday, the U.S. State Department declared Venezuela's consul general in Miami persona non grata for her part in an alleged plot in 2008 in Mexico to conduct a cyber attack against the U.S. The plan was revealed in a Univisión report in December. Now, the expulsion was undoubtedly justified, but the timing of the move suggests that the Obama administration wanted to show the world, especially hawkish members of Congress and 2012 voters, that they were doing something to fight off the Iranian threat and fend off any criticism of weakness or appeasement on their part. Expect Venezuela to retaliate shortly, probably by kicking out an American diplomat.

Wrapping up this news piece is one nugget that perhaps sends some mixed signals about the future of chavismo. While recent moves, including the appointment of General Henry Rangel Silva as Defense Minister, seemed to show the supremacy of hardline thinking within the administration, another development hints at other possibilities. Learning from his mentor Fidel Castro, and most other successful dictators, President Chávez has never allowed other figures in his movement to attract too much popularity or too big of a power base. Perhaps the best example of this was the exit of former Defense Minister Raúl Baduel, who was a longtime Chávez ally and confidante and greatly helped him survive the 2002 coup attempt. By 2007 Baduel had become to attract significant attention to himself, even criticizing the President, and was expelled from the administration. He then declared himself in opposition to Chávez, and within a year found himself charged with massive fraud during his tenure as Defense Minister. Today he is serving a seven year prison sentence.

One man, however, is currently coming as close as anyone has to changing this phenomenon. Diosdado Cabello is a former soldier, governor of Miranda, and participant in the failed 1992 coup with Chávez. On December 20 he was named First Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). President Chávez is its president. Then on January 5 he was also named President of the National Assembly. These are both important, high profile positions, and he will now have access to and influence on practically every important decision made by Chávez. It essentially makes him the president's right hand man, and gives him a degree of power not previously delegated to any individual. Excited pundits are wondering what this means for the future of chavismo - are there factions forming within the movement? Is his ascension a sign of strength or weakness for Chávez? Could it possibly mean that the president himself is preparing a successor in case his health deteriorates? All is conjecture at this point, but it certainly makes for an interesting contrast with most of the news coming from Miraflores these days.