Parting Thoughts

I head back to Washington, DC this weekend, but before I do I thought I would write one last post with some brief thoughts on Venezuela and what may or may not happen in the year ahead.

First of all, I had a thoroughly rewarding experience here, and would happily stay longer if circumstances dictated that I should and could. The people here are incredibly welcoming and friendly, and during my entire time here I only encountered one instance of some anti-imperalismo, with a soldier in the San Antonio de Táchira airport. For the reasons that I wrote about previously, Venezuela is a pretty great place, and I didn´t even travel to any of the spots that everyone says are the best in the country - the beaches of Los Roques and Margarita (and pretty much everywhere else too), Angel Falls (the highest waterfall in the world), Mérida (the picturesque city in the Andes), the national parks of El Morrocoy and Henri Pittier, etc.


Beyond that, of course I will miss the friends I made and the routines I created. I will miss buying and reading a newspaper each morning, which of course I could do in the States but no doubt will not. I will miss the sense of adventure that I felt here and that I try to maintain in Washington, with intermittent success. Along with that, I will miss the excitement and uncertainty that goes along with living in Caracas. That describes not just the political climate here, but most aspects of daily life. By that I don´t mean that I crave living in a place with high crime rates and potential for violence. Here I know that if I walk by the National Assembly and the surrouding streets, I am guaranteed to encounter a protest of some sort, and not the type where people hold up some posters demanding an end to nuclear weapons, but one where people are demanding jobs, lower food prices, or being paid to cheer for President Chávez. They are just more colorful characters, and the protests actually have a chance of succeeding. I will hear the President make a statement that I thought was impossible for a head of state to make. Or see a woman slap a driver in the face who just tried to cut her off. Or someone make a successful sale of some trinket that nobody could possibly want to buy. Or something else that I have never seen before. The chances are good that some plan I made will be interrumpted by a closed road, a long wait in line, a shortage of food, or an electricity outage. But somehow everybody shrugs and goes on with life, finding another way to cope. That feeling of adaptability/powerlessness/humor with which most Venezuelans approach life is very appealing to me.

On the other hand there will be some things that I do not miss about Venezuela. It will be nice to be able to have a normal social life after 7:00 pm. To watch college basketball on TV. To watch anything on TV, really. To not have to listen to so many conversations start with ¨Did you hear about the latest shooting or robbery?¨ or ¨Chávez is insufferable, this latest incident is the worst one yet!¨ I enjoy discussing politics, but when it is as a policy debate or a kind of game. Following the Republican primaries is like watching a closely-fought basketball game where the lead changes back and forth. But vitriolic comments about how one side is ruining the country (no matter how true they may be) are not fun to listen to. People bemoan the increased partisanship and bitterness of politics in the U.S., and they are right, but spend a few months in Venezuela and you will get a little bit of perspective.

Most of all I look forward to regaining the freedom that it is impossible to feel in Caracas. The problem here is not that I generally feel unsafe - that rarely happens and when it does it is usually in situations which I could have avoided. The problem is that you have to factor in security issues in just about whatever decision you take, no matter how petty. If you are heading back to your apartment after 6, you can´t just think, ¨do I feel like walking, taking the bus, or the metro today?¨ You have to decide if there is any risk associated with each. If you want to meet up with somebody, you can´t just say ¨let´s meet at so-and-so restaurant at so-and-so time,¨ you have to decide how risk averse your friend is, what the atmosphere in the neighborhood or establishment is like, how long you are likely to stay there (which affects the security environment coming home), etc. Before talking to someone you have just met, you have to measure up what their political views likely are so as not to say something that will anger or offend them. Ultimately it will just be nice to recapture the spontaneity that I can have in Washington, where I can decide at the last minute that I want to do something and have an excellent chance that I can just go ahead and do it without a second thought.

***

Looking ahead for Venezuela, the uncertainty the country currently faces is rather stunning. Despite the rhetoric used by both sides in the U.S. presidential campaign, in my opinion people´s daily lives will not change much no matter who wins in November. That is not the case here. If President Chávez manages to win another mandate, Venezuela is headed for years more of insecurity, shortages, and the further Cubanization of life. If the opposition wins, that process should begin to reverse. Either way, the potential for violence absolutely exists, probaby much more so if the opposition comes out ahead. Those stakes alone would make the situation tense enough, but the current health of Chávez affects everything. Nobody knows in what state he will be during the campaign. Some question whether he will be alive in October, or at least in 2013. Diosdado Cabello, the chavista probably in the best position to succeed Chávez, may or may not have entered campaign mode this week, making a series of unusual public appearances. If the President is healthy, the elections should go on as normal. If he is not, who knows? They could even be postponed. If he is incapacitated or dies shortly before or after, there is no way to predict what could happen.

With that said, I´ll take one shot at a prognostication. I believe that Chávez will be healthy enough to run a normal campaign this summer and fall. Nevertheless, and while acknowledging that any number of events and circumstances can and will change between now and October, in a free and fair election I believe that Henrique Capriles Radonski would win an extremely narrow victory. Enough people here are fed up with the insecurity, unemployment, scarcity of food, and poor health care that they are ready for a change. Capriles has been a strong and reassuring candidate who has done nothing to frighten undecided voters.

But of course I do not believe that the election will be free and fair. At the least Chávez will manipulate the media and make every effort to frighten and intimidate voters from voting from the opposition. He may turn to dirtier tricks including rigging voting machines and not opening polling stations in opposition districts. Already the government has opened the taps to its coffers. Public spending has increased dramatically, and recently it was announced that 19 products, mostly soap, household cleaners, water, and other goods that all families use, will have their prices cut beginning on April 1. More such moves will no doubt follow in an attempt to buy votes. But shortages continue. Currently you cannot find milk, and cooking oil is starting to disappear. You would think the price cuts would mean people would wait to buy the products until April, but it actually has the opposite effect. People know that the lower prices mean shortages will inevitably follow, so the shopping spree has already begun.

Despite all of these moves I think the vote on October 7 will be extremely close. I think Chávez will find a way to win a narrow victory, but even if he doesn´t I do not think that he will give up power willingly. If he were to lose a close election I think he would claim fraud and try to stay in office. At that point it would probably fall to the army to determine who would prevail. If he maintained its support I do not think that the opposition would be able to unseat him. If major elements of the army were to support the opposition then they could. Or widespread violence could ensue.

But to reiterate, I think Chávez will win in October, leaving behind a mess of a situation. The rising government spending will lead to more inflation and then cuts next year, worsening the stiuation. Oil prices will need to keep rising to make up for the declining production in Venezuela, which will continue as long as political supporters rather than well-trained workers are employed by PDVSA. Crime will continue to worsen, because the President simply does not care about fixing it. While I do not think that Chávez will be incapacitated in the next year, I do think there is a good chance he will be before the expiration of the next six-year term. At that point another chavista or the army would have to step in. But that is getting way ahead of myself.

No matter what, Venezuela appears headed for more tough times ahead. Which is a real shame for a country as blessed as it is with the people and resources it has. I suppose that is the message I would like everybody who has read my blog to leave with. Though Venezuela finds itself in a mess right now, there is no reason to believe that it will remain like that indefinitely. The country has everything it needs to once again become a place of prospertiy, and no doubt at some point soon it will manage exactly that.